← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Water AlliesTier 2
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Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.2% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |